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This meter indicates how close we are to Artificial General Intelligence, it is calculated based on the recent events, predictions from experts and other indicators.
The current meter uses best current prediction. It is not a scientific measurement, a probability, or a countdown to a confirmed arrival date.
AGI broadly refers to AI with general capabilities across many different tasks. Definitions vary, as do the forecasts below. A higher clock reading represents a more advanced position on the illustrative scale.
What is AGI? Compare definitionsThe AGI Clock brings a big question into view: how close are we to AI that can handle a broad range of tasks at a human level? The meter offers a visual reference, while the timeline lets you compare forecasts. They serve different purposes, so it helps to read them separately.
There is no confirmed arrival date to count down to. An AGI countdown can show the time remaining until someone's predicted date, but the prediction is still an assumption. Here, the clock is an illustrative scale rather than a timer ticking toward a deadline.
If you came looking for an AGI timer, start with the forecasts above. A year or date range tells you what someone expected; it does not tell you how certain they were or whether their view has since changed.
The percentage expresses a position on the AGI meter's scale. A reading of 50%, for example, would not mean half the research is finished, a 50% chance of AGI, or half the waiting time remaining.
Use the display as a starting point for exploring the question. For a forecast you can evaluate, you need a definition of AGI, supporting evidence, and an explanation of what could change the estimate.
That depends in part on what counts as AGI. Google DeepMind's Levels of AGI framework distinguishes how well a system performs from how broadly its abilities apply. Those are different questions: being excellent at one task does not establish the same ability across many tasks.
Read the timeline as a collection of historical predictions, not a consensus or a current schedule. Before comparing two dates, check what each person meant by AGI, when they made the prediction, and whether they have revised it. Choosing the earliest date, or averaging the dates, leaves out that context.
Need a clearer starting point? Explore the different definitions of AGI before comparing the dates.
One destination. A whole spectrum of predictions.
Historical forecasts, preserved as originally collected. Dates may have passed and views may have changed. These are individual predictions, not a consensus.